Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Patience

Lots of action going on in the government at the moment. Lots of projects, lots of experiments. I'm not educated enough on the items at hand to really have a serious opinion about the details of these plans, so I won't jump at a guess.

Doing nothing will likely result in the markets correcting themselves, likely at a great cost to many who had nothing to do with this situation. Possibly, if things were actually as bad as some thought 6 months ago, at the cost of the modern economy itself. Some form of Keynesian government spending seems to be a good idea - investment which will pay for itself down the line is 100% a good idea.

However, many people, Germany in particular, are very concerned about hyper inflation from the Fed printing money to pay for this work; and given Germany's experience between the world wars, they have every right to be concerned. They know the dangers of trying to simply print your way out of debt.

The US Dollar may be entrenched enough to survive a massive increase in available notes through sheer inertia, but if too much money is printed, the US dollar can plummet in value just like any other currency.

So, while I still support demand-side stimulus, I am going to be patient to see how this all plays out. Hopefully, there will be caution along with the action.